Texas Hill Country Blog

I’M LISTING WITH MY COUSIN, HE NEEDS THE MONEY
August 16, 2010

When real estate markets are solid, strong, and going up, you can list your property with just about anyone and get it sold.  When markets turn down and slow, Sellers need the best person they can find for the job. 

In 2006 nearly twice as many properties sold that will sell in 2010.  Properties were selling within days or just a few months of hitting the market.  There is nearly three years of market inventory overall today and home inventory alone is one year.  This means if no new home listings come on the market and the number of sales per month continue as they have for the past 6 to 8 months, it will take one year to sell the current home inventory in MLS.

A lot of people entered the real estate sales field from 2005 to 2009.  It was fairly easy to either make a sale or have a listing sell, so just about anyone looked to be   successful in this business.Many of the REALTORS who entered the real estate business since 1996 have not experienced a serious downturn in the market. 

Many REALTORS, don’t have the knowledge or expertise to determine values when values are    going down as opposed to going up.  When real estate markets are going down with Sellers who need to sell, they often find themselves behind the market.  An example of this is the person who lists their property say at $250,000 to test the market and within 60 days they have little activity and few showings.  The seller then waits another 30 days before making a price adjustment to $235,000, but unfortunately the market is already below  that price to $225,000.  This is called ‘chasing’ the market downward.

In today’s real estate market, Sellers need the REALTOR with the most knowledge and experience to not only determine a ‘real saleable’ listing price, but an agent who has the expertise in getting a property sold in a slow market.

Every agent has the same information at their fingertips thru the detailed data the local Multiple Listing Service provides.  The experienced REALTOR typically does a better job of interpreting the facts to the benefit of the Seller.

After a price is determined, the experienced agent also knows how to compare the listing to other similar properties currently on the market to determine the best positioning of the property not only by price, but also to make the property stand out from the competition.

So even though your cousin, best friend, or neighbor has a real estate license, and the markets are slow, and they need the money, are they really the best choice to help you accomplish your real estate goals?  Real estate remains the single largest investment that a person makes during their lifetime.  As a Seller or Buyer, you need all the professional help you can get.  If you needed brain surgery would you use your  cousin who is a doctor because they needed the money, or would you seek the best qualified professional in that field?

At Fredericksburg Realty, we have been listing and selling real estate since 1965. During these years, we have experienced seven recessions in America and watched interest rates fluctuate from today’s low of 4% to the 21% high of the early 1980’s.  We have been in markets going up, standing still, and declining.  All of our experience can help you with your real estate goals.  

Call us,

Sherman D. Durst 

2010 MID-YEAR UPDATE CONTINUES
August 2, 2010

Ranch properties hit highs in sales during 2006 and into 2007 selling for as high as $6,000 & $8,000 per acre.  This does not include properties with year round creeks or river water which sold for as much as $12,000 & $15,000 per acre.  30 to 40 ranches were typically selling each year from 2005 through 2007.  The unit sales dropped to 13 & 14 the past two years respectively. 

Currently there is 40 plus ranches listed for sale over 100 acres in size which averages to about 175 acres in size and the asking price averages is around $8,572 per acre.

On the selling side, only 4 ranches over 100 acres sold in the first six months of 2010 for an average asking price of $4300 per acre.  This is a 5 to 6 year supply if sales continue at the current pace.  As stated in an earlier update, the Gillespie County real estate market has been carried by residential sales which the ranch sales statistic bears out.

There is currently 130 ranch properties under 100 acres for sale in Gillespie County.  During the first six months of 2010, there were 9 sales.  This is a 7 year supply of inventory at the current sales pace. 

 Throughout our history Gillespie County has very few commercial sales on an annual basis.  The   Gillespie Co. MLS shows 12 commercial sales in 2006 for the first six months of the year which fell to 5 this year, yet is over the 3 sales during the same time period last year.  There are currently 69 commercial properties for sale in the MLS.  In today’s market, one statistic to read about on a national level is ‘Pending’ sales. 

This statistic is used to help evaluate if the real estate markets are getting better overall.  A property is pending when it has been escrowed at the title company.  In today’s fickle real   estate market, a pending  sale does not mean a property will make it to the closing table.  In 2006 Gillespie County had 322 pending properties on June 30.  In 2009 this number dropped to 56 which is slightly above the  50 pending for 2010.  This slight drop is noticed by the local real estate market.  Sales were somewhat slow in January and February of this year.  The spring selling season was very good in March and April, but beginning May 1 there was a noticeable difference in activity and the lack of contracts being escrowed. 

 Another aspect of the ‘Pending’ properties, is the number that come back on the market after going under contract.  These are properties that don’t make it to closing for any number of reasons; such as, buyer’s  remorse, the inspection process, buyer loan qualification, or the appraisal process.  25 homes came back on the market in 2010 during the first six months after being under contract which is down from 40 in 2009.  

 The last statistic in our mid-year update is the number of price changes.  There were only 92 price changes in 2006 which was the year of the highest sales number in the history of the MLS.  There were 323 price changes through June 30 of this year.  This number is reflective of sellers responding to the lack of sales and activity in the current market.  This is 22% less than 2009, which possibly states that sellers are now pricing their properties more realistic when they initially come on the market.

  As stated in a previous column, the year-end sales data will tell us the whole story for 2010.  Gillespie County and the Texas Hill Country remain one of the brightest spots in real estate in the country even when sales are down 50% from the highs of 2006.  Texas and the Hill Country in particular have a lot of desirable qualities that continue to bring buyers into this area.  With low interest rates and a good quality of life, now may be one of the best times to buy in the Hill Country.

Until next week,

Sherman D. Durst 

MORE MARKET UPDATES FOR 2010
July 30, 2010

 When real estate prices are going up there are two areas where you see more inventory come on the market:  city lots & rural developments.  A supply and demand issue.  When slow markets begin to turn to   better markets there is typically not enough inventory for the demand of new homes or real estate for those people who have been saving their money in the slower economy. 

Fredericksburg & Gillespie County experienced a lot of new city developments and single family rural subdivisions coming on the market over the past ten years with a number of these being developed as late as 2006 and 2007.  The economy was already showing signs of a slowdown by 2007, even more in 2008, then finally the low point in 2009.  Thus far in 2010, it is looking to be a better year; obviously, we’ll know more when the year is over.

Lot inventory remains high in the city of Fredericksburg although the Months of Inventory is lower.  This lower number is because certain developments have not put their properties back into the “MLS” even though the lots remain for sale.  We could give you the data that unit sales for lots is up a strong 27+%, but the real story behind this is only 8 lots sold in the city of Fredericksburg in 2009 and only 11 have sold thus far for 2010 thru June.  The long term comparison is to the high year in lot sales with 53 lots selling in 2006. 

The building community is feeling the pinch in the market as much as anyone.  There is very little ‘spec’ building taking place with the amount of home inventory available to buyers.  There is currently  16 plus ‘brand new’ homes for sale in Fredericksburg.  Home builders are not financially in a position to speculatively build a home “hoping” it will sell, when all indicators show the number of homes on the market and the time it is taking them to sell.

Another aspect of the lot market is that Fredericksburg is still a retirement community to many of our buyers.  These buyers are coming from other markets in Texas or out of state and they must sell before purchasing here. 

At this time, there is no new city lots being developed.  Lenders watch these same statistics and they aren’t willing to put money out when inventory is at high levels.  In typical real estate fashion, the day will come when lot inventory will again be low and the demand will be stronger.

Rural Tracts in the Gillespie MLS are those   properties that are located in a platted development and  typically range from 2 to 20 acres, although they could be larger.  Rural Tract sales in 2009 and 2010 mirror the lot sales mentioned above.  Months of Inventory was lowered because sales were just slightly higher and   inventory didn’t increase much either.  The high year of tract sales was in 2007 with 45 units compared to 13 in 2009, and 14 in 2010.

Just like lot developments, Gillespie County had a large number of rural developments come onto the market beginning in the late 1990’s.  In a good  economy people tend to move away from town getting a small of piece of the country for peace and enjoyment.  As the economy turns and slows, typically people stay closer to the town because in an overall sense the cost of living is somewhat less. 

 More on ranches next week.    

GILLESPIE COUNTY YEAR TO DATE 2010
July 23, 2010

The positive news is that sales are up over last year in Gillespie County.  The number of sales is up over 17% and the dollar amount is up almost 30%.  This shows that our local market is stable and up to now has been able to withstand the downside impact of the rest of the country. There are two underling reasons for the numbers to be up and stable: one is fewer new properties are coming on the market.  This means some sellers are waiting out the market until it gets better or they may be aware that there is too much competition in the price range of their property.  Second  the total number of active listings is 5% less than this time last year, which ties into both sales and fewer new listings.Residential homes are still the strong point of the  local overall market.  Homes account for over 50% of the total dollars.  People always need housing.  There are over 300 homes for sale in Gillespie County.  Nearly 50% are out of town on acreage and these homes usually sell for a higher price.  The overall average sales price for homes in town dropped 10% year over year in 2010.  This further shows that more homes out of town sold in 2010 thus far and for a higher average than last year.2009’s Inventory of Homes in town stood at slightly over one year which means if no more homes came on the market, it would take one year for all homes currently for sale to sell.  In 2009 there was a 5.4 year supply of Homes Out of Town.  This number has dropped to a more manageable 12 months.  This was brought about by some homes selling and some seller’s taking their homes off the market.For now, we remain in an price driven market where the majority of homes selling are those under $300,000.The rest of the story on the residential market is that we are not near the “high sales years” on homes in or out of town.  Our report clarifies that sales are up over 2009, but we are 40% below the highs of 2006. 

One point that we have noticed during the forty-five years of Fredericksburg Realty’s existence is that when times are good people tend to move onto acreage, and when times are bad, they tend to move back to the city.

There are sellers who keep hoping for the market to come back.  Even though the new listing and active listing inventories have reduced, there is still too much inventory and too few sales for us to reach the levels of 2006 and 2007.  When the months of inventory is around the area of 6 months, we will experience a very stable residential market.  We are only half way there. 

THE UPS, DOWNS, & SIDEWAYS OF OUR REAL ESTATE MARKET
July 13, 2010

The Gillespie County Multiple Listing Service serves the real estate industry in Gillespie, Blanco, Mason, Llano, Kimble and Kerr Counties.  This service is computer oriented so that all listings in the system are available to all member agents.  Because of the immense technology available to the industry a lot of data can be viewed and studied both in current Listings and past Sold properties to determine market conditions.

The data used here was complied showing results from the first six-months of 2010 in comparison to the same time period for the past six years.  Many people know the market was at an all time peak in 2006 with nearly 400 unit sales that accounted for $62,000,000.  After the financial crises on Wall Street, 2009 was the new low point with just 212 unit sales accounting for $29,000,000 in sales.  Many of the analysts watched on television seem to always try to put a ‘positive’ spin on the market by giving you year over year or month over month data.  Today the public is much smarter than they are given credit for.  Everyone wants to know the story behind the data so hopefully we can give you this as we look at the 2010 market and where things are.

We have preached that one of the problems in real estate here and nationwide is the amount of inventory or current listings for sale.  Year over year the local MLS shows that there is approximately 1550 properties for sale.  While that number isn’t much over the 1501 for 2009; it is nearly double that of the low in 2005 of 802 properties.  Sales were booming in 2005, 2006, 2007 before the slow down came.  This means many properties were selling within days or weeks of coming on the market.  This kept the market active, prices stable, even causing prices to go up as demand was stronger than supply. 

The opposite comparison to this category is too study Sold properties.  For 2010 260 properties have Sold year to date.  Compare this to 399 Sold properties in 2006.  In 2006 a property was selling for every two on the market.  Today, one is selling for every 7.4 on the market.  This creates selling pressure on serious sellers.  If you want your property to sell, you must be very competitive on price.  In the New Listings Category, 282 new listings came on the market from Jan. 1, 2008 through June 30, 2008.  During that same time in 2010, 437 new listings came on the market.  The 437 is actually under the 2009 of 528 which could be showing that some excess inventory is being removed, but the numbers are nearly 25% over 2008 while sales are down just about that same amount creating a 50% disparity.

The positive part observed in the above is that inventories have leveled and in some cases even come down.  There is still too much inventory, but positive signs are out there, unit sales are up.  Real Estate is cyclical; it has always been this way.  Markets go up for 6-7 years, they go down for 6-7 years, and they remain stable for 6-7 years.  We are in the down market now.  With the lowest interest rates of all time, one might expect better sales activity; however, there is a lot of caution at the moment.  When people are unsure, they stand still.

60% of the sales data in the categories discussed  from the MLS is from Gillespie County sales, next week we discuss the numbers in our county.

Enjoy your summer,

Sherman D. Durst

PRODUCT VERSUS MARKETING DRIVEN
June 21, 2010

Practically everyone living in America today   has grown up with television and its marketing schemes and those younger are now growing up with the Internet and all of its marketing.  In the current real estate market companies such as ours get multiple calls daily from vendors trying to sell us the next best website, search engine ranking, or print media advertising.  After a while they call again and offer us the ‘new’ price deal on their brilliant products.  As a buyer or seller of real estate, you may also be overwhelmed by a real  estate companies marketing as opposed to just getting the answers you want.REALTORS have always been leaders in advertising and promotion in their efforts to sell property.  Efforts have always been made to put a property in its best light to public.  Today’s internet society takes away from some of the promotion as interested buyers have so many avenues to learn about a specific property.When markets are doing well it is so much    easier to ‘hype’ a property.  Buyers expect the information and want the info to make a fast decision before a property is sold.  When the markets turn downward buyers don’t want or need the ‘hype’.  In the current market, the facts become important.  Buyers want all  of the available information to make an informed decision.  They want to work with informed agents  who know the market and give them the best advice.  Buyers will always pay for value.  That value is what they establish in their mind by having all of the choices and all of the information available to them.A variety of four-color magazines, pictures, virtual tours and adjective prone vocabulary cannot sell a property that is over-priced.  Some real estate companies continue to use these same marketing  techniques that worked 3-4 years ago, but the buyers are no longer buying into this fluff marketing.  Today’s buyers want and expects solid data, real  information, and in a timely manner. 

So if you are a seller, this is the buyer you are trying to reach.  Price your property to compete in this marketplace and you will see results.  Price too high and you’ll still be trying to sell two and three years from now.  Price right to create value and buyers will recognize this fact and stand in line to purchase your property.  It sounds easy, but it is very complicated to find that right price in today’s marketplace.  It takes an experienced professional working in the trade daily and knows the markets movements.  You don’t find this with those companies who still rely on the mass marketing of the print media or the internet.  They still think they can fool a buyer into a value, and it doesn’t work anymore.

Don’t be fooled…Sherman D. Durst

YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR IN THE HILL COUNTRY
June 11, 2010

        When you buy a home or land in the Texas Hill Country, prices can range from slightly to   significantly different as you move from one to county to the next.  The price can also vary in each county depending upon the location of the property in the respective county.        Prices will always be lower in Mason than in Llano which is less than Gillespie County.  As you move further away from the population areas of San Antonio, Austin, Houston, or Dallas, buyers begin  placing values on driving time as well as the amount of leisure time they are able to spend at their weekend property.

        If the circumstance is a permanent home purchase, buyers place certain values on distance back to major shopping areas in Austin & San   Antonio as well as the amenities of living in a  community that provides the basic services of hospital care, shopping, dining opportunities and more.  The communities with more to offer will   always see their properties sell for more money.

      Each Texas Hill Country town has something to unique to offer which allows buyers the  opportunity to shop from a large selection of properties.  Many times buyers visit Hill Country real estate offices stating that they are looking at Georgetown, Kerrville, Brenham and Fredericksburg.  This totally confuses local REALTORS      because we already know the many differences of the communities, and the variation in available real estate.

      In a REALTORS mind, first the buyer should visit the communities they are considering to live in and not worry about real estate until they have chosen a community.  Why buy in an area because the property is cheap if you don’t know for certain that you will like living there or if the community doesn’t offer the amenities that are important to you and your lifestyle?

      One of our jobs as REALTORS, is to point out to the buyer that possibly they are doing their research in the wrong manner.  In addition, the REALTOR can explain to Buyers the price point differences in housing and why.   All real estate is local, meaning it is not logical to compare a home or ranch in Georgetown to one in Fredericksburg.  Likewise you can’t compare the two towns to each other, they are greatly dissimilar.

       When you start the search for your dream property, first decide where you wish to live since this is the most important part of the search.  Once you have decided, there will be plenty of properties and price categories to select from.  

 Let us know if we can help, Sherman D. Durst

WHAT TO DO, WHAT TO DO
June 9, 2010

 We get calls all week long asking about the  market.  When we get these calls the caller usually has been listening to the news of CNN, FOX, CNBC, CBS, etc. hearing conflicting reports that they feel like they don’t know what to do.The DOW’s up, the DOWs down, now it’s moving sideways.  Should I buy gold or silver? Or is it too late? Greece is pulling everything down, now China’s got problems, the EURO is up and then it’s down, PIIGS are the problem and what is going on in real estate?  Real estate sales are up, confidence is up, but there are so many for sale signs on homes?  In Fredericksburg    Realty’s 45 years of business there has never been more confusion.  This short column can in no way give you the answers for the world or even our own country regarding the many financial markets, but we can tell you why real estate is the place to be, especially in the Texas Hill Country.The Gillespie County MLS covers Gillespie, Blanco and Mason counties, in addition, we have sales in Llano, Kerr, Kimble, and Kendall Counties.  As of Monday, May 17, 2010, 176 properties have sold in the entire MLS compared to 122 this time last year.  For the entire MLS the dollar sales are double over last years $25,000,000 to just over $50,000,000 for this year.  For Gillespie County only 2009 had 69 sales compared to 99 in 2010 thus far and $16M in dollars sales in 2009 compared to $28M this year. The record year of all time for sales was 2006 when 274 properties had sold year to date for $63M in the entire MLS and in Gillespie County there were 210 sales for $42M.  While sales are down from these highs, they are actually doing very well in this area considering what we hear from Phoenix, Detroit, Florida, California and Las Vegas.  So if you have cash and you aren’t happy with the .05 per cent you are getting at the bank or you don’t trust the news media, Washington or Wall Street, then what you should consider is investing in Texas Hill Country Real Estate.  There are a few bargains to be found, there really aren’t any ‘real steals’, but that is a testament to the stability of our market, the equity of our market, and the conservative nature of borrowers  & lenders.

We don’t have those wild fluctuations where values went up 30-60% in a year or people doubling their money.  Consequently prices haven’t dropped 70% either.  If you are looking for a home there are many choices in every price category.  It is a great time to be a buyer with low interest rates and so many choices to pick from.  If you wish to be in the country, land offers many opportunities not only the enjoyment of ownership, but a place to go to get away from everyday life, to picnic and hunt, build a cabin or a permanent home.  City building lots and rural land residential tracts are important buys right now.  We feel there has never been a better time to buy for your future home.                                  

Since 1965 Fredericksburg Realty has been helping buyers and sellers with their real estate needs.  We don’t know much about Wall Street or Washington, except we don’t like what we see and hear.  So we are glad to be right here in the best place in the world….

Texas Hill Country Fredericksburg, Texas….Sherman D. Durst

THE TRICKS OF PRICING
June 8, 2010

  Price is the single most important part of placing your property on the market for sale.  Pricing correctly is always key.  The correct price can be different in markets going up or down.  Price too high and you stay on the market too long which puts you at risk of becoming what is known as shop-worn.  Then no one wants to show or see your property because they think something is wrong with it other than the price.  If you price too low, you may actually invite lower offers as opposed to getting the bottom price you selected.  When markets are going up as they were from 2002 thru 2007, you could stay ahead of the market and ask more than the sales data said your property was worth.  Your property could work its way into the right price in a short time if inventory in your type and price category were short.  In today’s market where there is excess inventory in all categories, pricing becomes more difficult.  An appraiser will do a market valuation on your property using sales data of similar homes in size, age,  condition, location and amenities.  A REALTOR may take the this process one step further and look at the current asking prices of homes that are currently on the market of similar size, age, condition, location and amenities.The purpose of the latter exercise is to establish if you are ‘competing’ with other homes on the market.  Buyers do comparison shopping looking at several homes that fit their needs.  Buyers usually don’t have sales data immediately available to them so they look at homes that fit their needs and then evaluate the homes by the asking prices.  Many times we hear buyers make the comment, ‘Well this is the best buy, but we wish it had a larger yard’.  If buyers look at enough homes, they begin to understand pricing as well as the REALTOR.An informed REALTOR will show you the homes for sale from the MLS that buyers might also be looking at, so you can have an idea of how you might compete.  If your home is competing with another in the same neighborhood at the same age, in similar condition and essentially equal amenities, and the competing  home hasn’t sold in 215 days, then possibly you need to price lower than this home.If you are a serious seller pricing your home to sell is your goal, then you must also position yourself better than the other similar homes for sale.  If all other factors of the competing homes are basically the same, then price will be the key difference.  The pricing of a home in a down market has nothing to do with what you owe or what you paid for the home 2 to 4 years ago.  The price has to always fit the current real estate market.  So if you wish to compete with the neighborhood homes and you want to get yours sold, as opposed to sitting on the market for seven months, then you need to price your home lower.  The next question buyers always have is this ‘how much lower’?  This part gets to be trickier.  A  market educated REALTOR will be able to advise you as to where to go with your price.  Price too much lower and you’ll start bidding against yourself, because in a down market, buyers always make an offer.  Price too close to your neighborhood competition and you haven’t separated yourself from your competition.  Price just right and get the offer, then a contract.The best price is always determined by having the best information of similar properties that have sold and those for sale.  The best way to gain information is to work with a knowledgeable full-time real estate professional.Sherman D. Durst 

MORE BUYER FEARS….
June 6, 2010

Last we discussed ‘pulling the trigger’ and  being qualified.  You are now more than ½ way home to moving into your new home.  Keep your eyes open and don’t be afraid to get to the finish line.

Once buyers meet the lender and get an idea of what they’ll need for a down payment and their monthly cost to own a home, they start thinking about painting, carpeting, sprucing up their new home.  Suddenly you start thinking about all of new additional costs wondering if you will have enough money?  This is the time to set your priorities on what to do.  Remember you are making a long term commitment to own a place of your own.  You’re not there for the short haul.  Everything you hope to do will be there when you are ready and can afford to do it.Possibly this is when ‘Buyer Remorse’ sets in?  You begin to wonder all sorts of things, why you ever thought of this crazy idea and what does that lender really know about you and your money? Remember that you have been approved by ‘industry standards’ that verify that you can complete the purchase.Next you might think…I don’t even like this home, it’s not what I wanted.  A word of wisdom, ‘the perfect home has never been built and never will.’  You are purchasing what you can afford.  When real estate markets regain their footing in the future, then you can plan your next leap up to a larger or better home.  And It won’t be perfect either.  In the interim you will have gained equity to give you a more substantial down payment on your next home, you will have had the pride of homeownership, and have the advantage of tax write-offs.As a Realtor for over 30-years, I have always advised to buy the most home you can afford in the best neighborhood you can enjoy.  This will always keep you happy and also help you gain equity in the future.  Finally, I believe in a team effort.  Money is tight, but this is the time to have a team working for you.  That team includes you Realtor, your lender, an attorney, a surveyor, a home inspector, an insurance agent and more.In our technological society of today, we think all the answers are on the internet. People still buy and sell homes and people is what you have on your team to give you the best advice from purchase to close and thereafter.  Working locally give you people with experience and knowledge in the local market who help you make the best decisions of all. 

Fear not, Sherman D. Durst

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